Market unable to bottom, private light warehouse new year-exit safe mode

The market can hardly be bottoming out private Qingcang new year China fund newspaper reporter trainee reporter He Jingyi Wu Jun last week the market plummeted again, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2850 points after the crash at the bottom to continue downward. This week will be the last five trading days before the Spring Festival Whether the current market has bottomed out, the spring market can appear? Investors are full of doubts. Private equity interview with China fund newspaper reporter believes that the current market can hardly see bottom, operation to control positions and risk based, holding the holiday wishes is not high. Private ownership of holiday wishes is not high, most of the private equity market to remain cautious, the willingness to hold the festival is not high. Shanghai Yu asset chairman Wang Yicong said on Friday could be short-lived oversold bounce, no signal will continue to see the trend reversed, short positions. But the 2850 Powei also formed a technical pressure down, the space is not great. The people who hold the festival will not be too many, the market will be weak in recent days, the rebound may be after the spring festival." Wang Yicong said. Huaibei heaven investment chairman Ye Fei told reporters, at present, the spring market is still there, but the rebound will not be large. "This week we will according to the actual situation, then good to Jiancang probing into about one or two, Qingcang holding festivals, it is not good to positions, after all, during the Spring Festival outside the situation is not clear, may affect the A shares." Million letter Albert fund also said that the current institutions and retail investors are relatively pessimistic, the possibility of volume turnover before the holiday is unlikely. But when, before the market or will be presented to stabilize the situation. Monday the trend is very important, if the intraday decline, the possibility of a whipsaw, grab a rebound opportunity; if the late fall, it should pay attention to risk. For the post market, there is a big difference in the views of private placement, some think the rebound probability is very large, some worry that multiple constraints will still affect the market. Ye Fei is confident of the rebound in the market after the festival, he believes that the festival after the central bank release liquidity probability is great, there must be rebound, can be heavy pressure. Billion fund Albert letter is not very pessimistic, but worried that the market is weak, do not hold too high expectations for the magnitude of the rebound after the holiday, the main band, concern oversold rebound in stocks, preferred sub sector shares. Wang Yicong believes that there is no rebound after the Spring Festival is not easy to say, and now there are still constraints, the negative cycle of continuous decline has not been fully resolved, such as pledge risk, the impact on the market psychological level is relatively large. In addition, the market liquidity easing is expected to tighten, especially the central bank’s determination of the exchange rate is very big, monetary easing may be delayed, the stock market is not optimistic. In addition, Wang Yicong also believes that the market into the annual report dense announcement period, including a lot of landmines. Although it has fallen a lot, but if the performance is expected to decline, the whole market valuations will be reduced, but it is still unsafe. The bottom of the operation is difficult to distinguish whether the current market bottomed out, how to operate in the near future, private hearts have no bottom. Some believe that the market is still falling space, the operation to take bear market strategy, some also believe that the fall is nearing the end of the rebound in the courage of the theory

市场难言见底 私募轻仓过年   见习记者 何婧怡   中国基金报记者 吴君   上周大盘再度暴跌,上证指数跌破股灾底部2850点后继续下行。本周将是春节前的最后五个交易日,该持股还是持币过节?当前市场是否已经见底,春季行情能否出现?投资者充满疑虑。   接受中国基金报记者采访的私募认为,目前行情难言见底,操作上以控制仓位和风险为主,持股过节意愿不高。   私募持股过节意愿不高   私募大多对行情保持谨慎,持股过节的意愿不高。上海名禹资产董事长王益聪表示,上周五可能只是短暂的超跌反弹,没有看到趋势扭转的信号,会继续空仓。但2850点破位后也形成了技术上压力,往下的空间不会很大。“持股过节的人不会太多,这几天市场都会偏弱,反弹可能要在春节之后。”王益聪说。   淮北倚天投资董事长叶飞告诉记者,目前来看,春季行情还是有的,但反弹幅度不会大。“我们这周会根据实际情况,好的话试探性建仓到一两成左右,轻仓持股过节,不好的话就继续空仓,毕竟春节期间外盘形势不明朗,恐怕会影响A股。”   亿信伟业基金也表示,目前机构和散户都比较悲观,节前成交量出现放量的可能性不大。但物极必反,节前市场或将呈现企稳态势。周一的走势很关键,如果盘中下跌,洗盘的可能性大,有抢反弹的机会;如果尾盘下跌,则要注意风险。   而对于节后市场,私募观点存在较大分歧,有的认为节后反弹概率很大,有的则担心多重制约因素仍会影响市场。叶飞对节后市场反弹很有信心,他认为节后央行释放流动性的概率很大,必有反弹,可以重仓搏一把。   亿信伟业基金虽然不很悲观,但担心行情处于弱势,对节后反弹的幅度不抱太高期望,以波段操作为主,关注超跌反弹股票,首选次新股板块。   王益聪认为,春节后有没有反弹还不好说,现在制约因素仍然存在,连续下跌带来的负向循环还没有完全解开,比如质押风险,对市场心理层面的影响比较大。另外,市场对流动性宽松预期收紧,特别是央行对保汇率决心很大,货币宽松可能会延后,对股市而言并不乐观。   另外,王益聪还认为,市场进入年报密集公布期,其中有不少地雷。虽然已跌了很多,但是业绩如果超预期下滑,整个市场的估值水平还会降低,现在依然不安全。   底部难辨 私募操作现分歧   当前市场是否见底,近期该如何操作,私募心里也没底。有的认为市场仍存下跌空间,操作上以采取熊市策略为主,也有的认为下跌已近结束,要在反弹中勇敢加仓才能获益。   叶飞认为,现在每次反弹量能都比较小,而且政策面仍没有利好,很难说底部已经出现。他认为今年市场有两种走势,一是跌到2500点出现V型反转,二是像2012年那样跌到2200点。“目前年线高高在上,操作上要坚持熊市策略,按照2200点的情况储备粮食和弹药,高抛低吸,等到大盘跌去20%、个股跌40%再去买。”叶飞说。   也有私募认为,目前市场估值相对合理,市场不具备长期熊市基础,操作上短期谨慎,全年想要盈利则要敢于择时加仓。   上海博道投资股票投资总监史伟表示,目前的宏观经济格局与1998~2001年接近,经济偏弱、流动性充裕、股票市场上下波动,但并不具备长期熊市基础。而且目前股市的估值、流动性等综合因素也不支持大范围熊市。   同时,史伟还认为,相比2014年,现在国债收益率大幅下降,直接提升股票估值,目前的2700点相当于当时2000点的估值,大盘大幅下跌空间不大。但汇率压力导致货币政策取向的改变,股市已做出显著反应,而债市平稳,出现股债背离,这个问题值得关注。   操作上,史伟表示,短期内以控制风险与控制仓位为主要操作思路,不少个股跌入“合理”价格区间,甚至大量跌破大股东、管理层的参与价格,这在历史上都很少出现。如果A股原有的估值体系不被打破,长期看不少股票存在投资价值。然而中短期而言,市场情绪处于恐慌之中,机构仓位处于持续下降过程中,而以债券市场为代表的外围市场流动性虽然不差,但愿意进入股市的新增资金不多。所以,在短期内以控制风险与控制仓位为主要操作思路。   史伟还表示,预计2016全年股市会是宽幅震荡,调整到阶段性低点,要敢于加仓,享受反弹将是今年盈利的关键。同时要密切观察经济政策、汇率、经济实际运行情况与前景,市场风险偏好变化、机构仓位与博弈等一系列指标,力争在阶段性低点买入。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: